Which company will become the overlord of intelligent connected electric vehicles in the future?

Before the market on September 1, local time in the United States, Tesla’s market value once exceeded $500 billion, which is almost the sum of the market value of all traditional car companies in the United States + Germany + Japan.
In other words, in terms of market value, Tesla = Toyota + Honda + Nissan + GM + Ford + FCA + Daimler + Volkswagen + BMW.
Tesla’s skyrocketing has also driven Weilai’s skyrocketing. This year, Tesla has risen by nearly 500%, and Weilai has risen by as much as 1000%. And let Ideal and Xiaopeng succeed in IPO in July and August, and raised huge amounts of funds.

According to the latest closing price at press time, Tesla’s market value is more than 410 billion U.S. dollars, while Weilai’s market value is close to its historical peak of 27 billion U.S. dollars. The ideal market value is 15 billion U.S. dollars and Xiaopeng’s market value is 15.1 billion U.S. dollars. However, after the recent two days of callbacks, the new energy bubble seems to be bursting before the market as of the day of publication.

This wave of new energy vehicle stock market skyrocketing, any financial model looks extremely pale, only one word can describe-bubble. But after the recent two days of callbacks, before the day of publication, the downward trend continues. Is the new energy bubble bursting?

01 Tun cash to buy the future

Taking advantage of the advent of the bubble, Wei Lai completed a fixed increase of US$1.7 billion, and Tesla officially announced that it would issue US$5 billion in stocks. Ideal and Xiaopeng raised US$1.093 billion and US$1.72 billion respectively through IPOs. At present, Weilai + Ideal + Xiaopeng has a cash reserve of approximately 52.5 billion yuan. This is the richest moment for them to start their business.
Tesla has more cash reserves. According to the 2020 Q2 financial report, Tesla’s cash and cash equivalents are US$8.6 billion. If it successfully issues US$5 billion in new shares, Tesla’s cash reserves will be approximately 136 Billion US dollars, about 100 billion yuan.

After Tesla hit a historical market value of 500 billion US dollars, there has been a retracement. The depth of the retracement was as high as 20%. The US local time plunged nearly 15% on September 2nd. It is not clear whether the general trend is a plunge or a return. withdraw. What is certain is that every good Tesla made is reflected in the stock price, and even overdrawn early.

In the huge bubble that has formed in new energy vehicles, even after the bubble burst, can it bring about something similar to the Internet bubble burst in 2000. Internet giants headed by BAT were born in China, and Internet giants such as AAGFM in the United States have formed. The next 20 years will be the golden age of rapid development of the Internet and mobile Internet.

First of all, trends must exist, and short-term bubbles also exist.

Secondly, it should be done to find the target that can be left in the trend.

Which one will become the overlord of intelligent connected electric vehicles in the future? From the perspective of brand power and core technology, Tesla should have a place. Even though Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng are all listed now, there are still crises. Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng are all seriously behind Tesla in core technology areas, including automotive electronic and electrical architecture, domain controllers, and operating systems, or even have no self-research capabilities at all.

If Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng can invest the current reserves of cash more into research and development, or even joint research and development, this is the dream of new car-building forces. However, it seems that joint research and development is not possible. Great, Weilai recruited Ren Shaoqing as assistant vice president to develop autonomous driving, and Ideal invited Wang Kai as CTO to build a new electrical and electronic architecture. At the same time, Ideal is also forming an autonomous driving team.

For Tesla Tesla, the cash is to continue to build factories to expand production capacity, and to increase research and development efforts to maintain technology leadership. For Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng, they also need to increase investment to build their own core competitiveness, otherwise they will undoubtedly lose in this competition.

Because the more powerful enemy has not yet officially surfaced.

02 Apple and Huawei are more anticipated

Apple and Huawei may launch models of their own brands in the next 3-5 years.

Apple’s secret research and development of cars is already an open secret, and a large number of people are digging from Tesla, including research and development. Engineering and even production talents. Huawei has already determined its strategic investment in the automotive business. Based on its accumulation of underlying technologies, Huawei has comprehensively developed core technologies for intelligent networked vehicles, including hardware such as the CC architecture, three major operating systems, domain controllers, autonomous driving algorithms, and sensors.

From the perspective of underlying technical capabilities, Huawei may be the only company that can compete with Tesla in the future. It may even rely on its accumulation in the ICT and IoT fields to interact with smart cars, smart homes, and smart transportation. Advantage.

Apple is a brand that the industry is looking forward to. Either iCar or Apple Car will not appear, or it will be a shocking breakthrough. Apple has accumulated a lot of patents for intelligent connected electric vehicles.

Ten years later, the world’s famous car brands, Tesla, Apple and Huawei, may be three of them.

In terms of computing power, the basis of smart cars, Tesla, Apple, and Huawei all have their own chip design capabilities and can apply them to automotive scenarios. This is an ability that all car manufacturers do not currently have, including new forces and traditional car companies. However, car companies all hope to make breakthroughs in the chip field and take actions.

With 16 years of accumulation, Tesla has built its own core competitiveness, and its brand power is unmatched.

Intelligent networked electric vehicles are destined to be a large collection of multi-industry integration. They are undergoing the process from functional vehicles to smart vehicles. Crossover players cannot ignore it.

Both Apple and Huawei hope to replicate their past successful experience in the mobile phone industry from feature phones to smart phones to the automotive industry, and backed by their own accumulated funds, especially Apple, which has accumulated more than 200 billion US dollars. Huawei has advantages in capital and technology.

Such opponents are terrible for Tesla, not to mention Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng. However, the barrier of the automobile industry is that this is a large-scale manufacturing industry. Apple needs to make up lessons, and Huawei also needs to make up lessons. After all, the complexity of the supply chain of the automobile industry is much higher than that of the mobile phone industry.

This is the advantage of the first mover, and it is also a pit that Apple and Huawei need to visit.

03The difference between Tesla and Apple

It is said that Tesla is the Apple of the automotive industry. Let’s compare the latest market value, revenue, profit and revenue composition of Tesla and Apple. Let’s not talk about Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng. These three companies are behind Tesla. Tesla has the opportunity before it is their turn.

In terms of market value, Tesla’s market value is $410 billion, which is 500% away from Apple’s market value of $2.3 trillion. However, Tesla’s revenue scale, profit margin and profitability are still too far away from Apple.

Tesla’s latest Q2 financial report shows: total revenue of US$6.036 billion, total gross profit of US$1.267 billion, and net profit of US$104 million under GAAP, earning GAAP profit for four consecutive quarters. Q2 cash and cash equivalents are US$8.6 billion.

Apple’s latest Q2 financial report shows: total revenue of 58.313 billion US dollars, net profit of 11.249 billion US dollars, N consecutive quarters of GAAP profit, cash and cash equivalents more than 200 billion US dollars.

From the perspective of revenue composition, Tesla’s Q2 recorded revenue of US$6.036 billion, of which US$5.179 billion was auto sales revenue, which can be considered to be hardware sales accounting for 85%. And Apple’s Q2 recorded 58.313 billion US dollars, hardware revenue (including iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, etc.) was 44.96 billion US dollars, accounting for 77.1%, and service revenue (mainly APP Store and other software services) was 13.35 billion US dollars. , Accounting for 22.9%.

Splitting the growth of each business, due to the impact of the epidemic, the revenue scale and profit of Tesla and Apple have not grown rapidly, and even have declined to a certain extent. Hardware revenue has also declined. However, Apple’s software service revenue increased by 16.6%, with revenue exceeding 13 billion U.S. dollars.

Software service revenue is the business revenue that Tesla dreams of. This is also the reason why it continues to increase the price of cars sold and the price of AutoPilot. At present, Tesla has not separately announced the revenue of AutoPilot, but from the selection rate About 20%, the unit price is estimated at US$8,000. In Q2, AutoPilot’s revenue is about US$145 million.

Apple hardware is very profitable, and software services are more profitable. Tesla’s hardware also makes money, and the profitability of software services needs to be explored. Tesla has such potential. The only difficulty is that the increase in automobile production capacity is much more difficult than the increase in production capacity in the mobile phone industry.

Will Tesla become the Apple of the automotive industry? Will Apple attack Tesla in the automotive industry? Can Huawei maintain the strategic focus of the automotive industry and continue to implement it in such a severe environment? These are the focus of attention in this big era.

Post time: Sep-07-2020